Three Questions for Jacob Misiorowski's Second Season
The Promise of a Rising Star
As the baseball season heats up, all eyes are on Jacob Misiorowski, the Brewers' rising star. With the departure of Freddy Peralta, Misiorowski is now undoubtedly the highlight of the Brewers' rotation. While Brandon Woodruff remains the longest-tenured Brewer, Misiorowski is being positioned as one of the franchise's new faces. As he embarks on his second season, several questions loom large, and we're here to explore them.
Can He Build on His Stellar Debut?
Misiorowski's debut season was nothing short of spectacular. He began with 11 no-hit innings and carried a perfect game into the seventh inning of his season start. This impressive performance earned him an All-Star selection after just five major league starts. However, as the season progressed, Misiorowski faced challenges, including a left tibia contusion that landed him on the IL. Despite this setback, his season ended on a high note, with a strong postseason run that put him back in the spotlight.
As he steps into his second season, the bar is set high. It's essential to set realistic goals while acknowledging the positive early projections. ZiPS predicts 26 appearances covering 116 2/3 innings, with a 3.86 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 10.93 K/9, and 3.93 BB/9. While these numbers represent a slight step back in innings and strikeouts, they also indicate potential improvements in walk rate, aligning with his minor league development trajectory.
As fans, we must temper our expectations. Expecting another All-Star year might be too much to ask. Misiorowski may not even be the top pitcher in the Brewers' rotation. But a season with small improvements in his stats could still be considered a success, as it would demonstrate continued growth from his debut year. However, we can't help but hope to see him remain electric and establish himself as a premier pitcher in the league.
Navigating the Jump in Innings
Misiorowski's jump in innings from 2024 to 2025 was significant, increasing from 97 1/3 to 141 1/3 innings, a 45% rise. Most teams use a 20% to 25% increase as a general rule of thumb for inning increases, but this isn't a hard and fast rule. It depends on the individual pitcher and how they respond to the workload.
After a short IL stint in August, Misiorowski struggled initially upon his return, posting a 6.41 ERA and 4.00 FIP in his first six starts. However, he rebounded in his final two starts and made the postseason roster. In the postseason, he shined, allowing just two earned runs in three starts, covering 12 innings.
For 2026, it's highly unlikely that the Brewers will increase his innings by 45% again, which would make him a 200-inning pitcher in his second season. Early projections suggest a slight increase in innings, with ZiPS predicting 116 2/3 innings. Most other projections on FanGraphs put him between 134 and 139 innings, making 30 to 32 appearances.
It's also worth noting that many projections only have Misiorowski making 24-25 starts, which could be due to the Brewers' strategy of using openers or potentially having him spend part of the season in the bullpen. However, there's no reason he can't get a full season of starts. Quinn Priester, who made 29 appearances last season, pitched 157 1/3 innings. This could be a realistic target for Misiorowski, leaving room for postseason appearances and strategic start manipulation during the season.
The main question is whether the increased workload will affect Misiorowski. While he had an offseason to rest, it was still a significant jump in innings. Is he fully recovered and ready to pitch a similar number of innings again? Can he maintain this level of performance for another year?
Learning from the Brewers' Track Record
To understand Misiorowski's potential trajectory, it's helpful to look at how other Brewers have fared in their second seasons. While each pitcher's journey is unique, the Brewers have a strong track record of development, so it can provide a reference point.
Brandon Woodruff: Woodruff made his major league debut in August 2017 and impressed with a 4.81 ERA in eight starts. In 2018, he served in a bullpen role but made a few starts. His regular season performance earned him a postseason roster spot, where he made four appearances, two of which were starts.
Freddy Peralta: Peralta made his debut in 2018, helping fill the Brewers' rotation. In the majors, he started 14 games before finishing the season in the bullpen. He also made a postseason appearance, pitching three scoreless innings. In 2019, he spent most of the season in the bullpen after early struggles in the rotation, but his strikeout and walk rates improved.
Corbin Burnes: Burnes began his career in the bullpen but started strong. After a 2.61 ERA out of the bullpen, he earned a postseason roster spot. However, his second season was a disaster, starting the season in the rotation but being removed after a 10.70 ERA in four starts. A return to the bullpen helped, but not enough, and he went back to the minors at the end of July. Thankfully, the Brewers didn't give up on him, and he began to show improvement in his third season.
Aaron Ashby: Ashby made his debut in June 2021 and initially pitched as a starter. He shifted to the bullpen to finish the season and made the opening day roster in 2022. He settled into the rotation and finished the year there. The Brewers were confident in him, signing him to a five-year, $20.5-million extension after his second season. Unfortunately, he lost all of 2023 and part of 2024 due to a shoulder injury.
Misiorowski's Second Season: What to Expect?
Looking at the Brewers' track record, Misiorowski is likely due for some more growth. As he steps into his second season on Tuesday, we can expect another compelling story for the Brewers. Will he live up to the hype and establish himself as a premier pitcher in the league? Only time will tell. But one thing is certain: Misiorowski's journey is far from over, and we're excited to see what the future holds for this rising star.
